mahiwaga

I'm not really all that mysterious

Legitimacy of Democratic Institutions

Even when the margins are insurmountable, you still have to play out the whole game. That’s what gives democratic institutions their legitimacy. Demands to short circuit the process are demands for invalidating the entire system.1

The fact is that there are other offices and even propositions that get voted on during primaries. It’s not just a race for POTUS. People dropping out before the process is complete guarantees diminished voter turnout, which ensures the protection of the status quo in Congress, in state government, and in local government. Either have faith in the democratic process or stop pretending you care about democracy.2

Contested primaries make the eventual nominee all that much stronger, especially when they end up subverting pre-crafted media narratives.

As much as I despise the sports analogies lazy writers make with regards to the primaries, there’s a lot in common in this regard: a nominee that fought hard, ran their best campaign, and won is going to look much stronger than a nominee who is selected by default. It’s like when a team makes it to the finals in a tough conference compared to when a team makes it to the finals because everybody in their conference is a joke.3

  1. crossposted on

  2. crossposted on

  3. crossposted on

posted by Author's profile picture mahiwaga

Ford v. Reagan

In 1976, neither Ford nor Reagan had enough delegates to clinch the nomination, although Ford was leading.

1976: The Last Time Republicans Duked It Out To The Last, Heated Minute • 2016 Mar 14 • NPR

Right now, the gap between Trump and Cruz is a little more than double the gap between Ford and Reagan in the final tally at the convention, but there are still over 1,000 delegates available in the rest of the primary season, and Trump would have to win more than half of them to cross the nomination threshold.1

This scenario is also still possible for Clinton and Sanders, although the gap is wider (almost 3x the difference between Ford and Reagan). Unless there are major unforeseen landslides down the road or Sanders bails before the end, it doesn’t seem like Clinton will cross the nomination threshold before the last day of the primary either.2

Reagan primaried a sitting president (albeit one who was appointed, not elected) and while he lost to Ford, 1976 was clearly a stepping stone to 1980.

So if you’re thinking about the long game of future elections and/or the broad game of winning Congressional seats and state and local elections, it really doesn’t make sense to drop out while you’re still technically viable.3

  1. crossposted on

  2. crossposted on

  3. crossposted on

posted by Author's profile picture mahiwaga